Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
