Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift of Stance and Closed Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter and The Ghost of 2018
All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger and A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
